(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• 157,000 jobs were added in Canada last month, exceeding the expectations of analysts.  The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%, the lowest level since the pandemic began in March of 2020.  Companies are still looking to hire more workers and 400,000 people have not rejoined the workforce. (Source)

• In the U.S. 194,000 jobs were added in September, which is the lowest monthly increase in 2021 and well below the estimated number of new jobs for the month.  Unemployment is down to 4.8%, the lowest level since the pandemic began. As workers delay their return-to-work, wages have increased nearly 5% since 2020. (Source)

• The disappointing results in the U.S. job market may delay the Federal Reserve’s move to taper its bond-buying program.  Despite the mixed news for jobs, the anticipation of the Fed’s response moved equity markets upward last week. 

• Increasing energy prices did not weigh down equity markets.  The price of oil increased an additional 5% last week and has nearly doubled in the past year.  It is now at its highest level in 7 years.  Economic output is being negatively affected in China and Europe as energy shortages are occurring widely.  OPEC+ agreed to increase output in an effort to reign in prices, increase their revenues and allow recovery to continue. (Source) 

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, markets were closed on Monday for Thanksgiving.  Reports being released tis week include August’s manufacturing sales, industrial production, wholesale trade, and September’s existing home sales on the schedule.

• In the U.S., bond markets were closed on Monday for Columbus Day.  Inflation for September via the Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. Federal Reserve minutes from Sept 21-22, retail sales, import prices and business inventories are scheduled for release this week.

• Globally, China’s trade surplus, CPI, Germany’s CPI, Eurozone and Japan’s industrial production are on the calendar.

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