(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

Despite the overall negative finish for American equities indices by the end of the week, there was some positive news. 

• Both the S&P 500 and the Dow, along with the TSX, rose to record all-time highs again last week before falling back.  The TSX breached 19,000 points briefly before essentially breaking-even for the week by gaining 2 points.
• Rising bond yields that are drawing investments away from equities into debt investments seems to be the main culprit for the dip at week’s end.  Bond yields tend to help the Financial sector, which provided stability for the TSX when oil prices fell more than 6% last week and dragged down the Energy sector. 
• Additionally, initial jobless claims rose last week, retail sales and housing starts fell below expectations.  The severe weather was blamed, especially its effects in Texas.

The Federal Reserve’s continued communication that interest rate increases are not expected until 2024 provided price support for equity values.  Concern for equities could grow if the Federal Reserve reversed itself on rate increases to battle rising inflation.  However, as the pace of vaccinations rises and infection rates begin to fall, then pandemic restrictions should start to be lifted and could lead to increased jobs growth and consumer confidence.  Since consumer spending is about 60% of the economy, the increases in employment and confidence coupled with U.S. stimulus cheques may lead to rapid economic growth.

What’s ahead for this week?

In Canada, February’s wholesale trade and manufacturing sales as well as both Ontario and Quebec budgets are scheduled to be released.

In the U.S., February existing and new home sales, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending reports are scheduled.

The latest details from the Canadian Federal Government on stimulus and economic assistance are available here.

The latest details of the current Canada’s Covid-19 Economic Response Plan are available here.

For more information contact: [email protected]

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