(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• The year concluded with a quiet and light trading week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.  Daily volumes of transactions were about 25% less than typical.  In addition to falling volumes, the last two days of trading saw North American equities drop slightly as the Omicron variant of the coronavirus caused spikes in infections across the globe.    Despite all the uncertainty attributed to Covid-19, equities performed strongly during 2021 as major indices gained 19 – 27%. This level of performance made 2021 an above-average year for stocks during the past 30 years according to Bloomberg.   In 2021 equities also avoided a major correction, which often occurs when high rates of gain occur. (Source)

• Economic growth in Canada and the U.S. measured as Gross Domestic Product and employment fueled stock market gains.  Economic growth (and supply manipulations from OPEC, for example) drove the price of oil 55% higher than its value at the end of 2020.  Gold is the only indicator in our grid (above) that lost value in 2021. 

• The Canadian dollar hit a trough on December 20th but finished the year strongly and based on last week’s increase of 1½%, climbed into positive territory for the year.  Adding the small gain in foreign exchange value to the TSX’s overall performance has Canadian denominated equities returning more than 22%.  For all the attention that the tech-heavy NASDAQ receives for its returns, the TSX outperformed it. 

   

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange was closed on Monday to observe New Year’s Day.  Industrial product and raw materials price indices, purchasing managers indices, automobile sales, and December’s employment report will be announced.

• In the U.S., capital markets are open for five full trading days.  The economic data scheduled for release includes construction spending, factory orders, purchasing managers indices from both ISM and Markit, vehicle sales, non-farm employment and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy meeting.

• Globally, purchasing managers indices for goods and services in the Eurozone, Japan, China and the U.K., Germany’s unemployment, factory orders, industrial production, inflation and retail sales, and France’s consumer inflation will be announced.  OPEC+ will hold another meeting to discuss production limits.

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